Wind ByakkoTier 2
at 250315 紙牌屋 Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 30.8% | -11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.4% | -14.0 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Byakko decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fleetfoot Filly | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cyclonic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cavalier Rescue | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bell of the Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sun Quan, Sealbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scattering Gusts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rearing Rebound | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Whirlwind Threads | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backstep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rotund Squirrel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |